July 6, 2022

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks aim to keep the momentum rolling on Tuesday night. The Mavericks won back-to-back games over the Phoenix Suns at home, evening the best-of-seven series at 2-2. Phoenix has home-court for Game 5 on Tuesday, however, and the No. 1 seed looks to regain control of the series. Torrey Craig (elbow) is listed as probable for Phoenix, with Dario Saric (knee) ruled out. Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) is out for Dallas.

Tip-off is at 10 p.m. ET in Phoenix. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Suns as seven-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215 in the latest Mavericks vs. Suns odds. Before you make any Suns vs. Mavericks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Suns, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Suns vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Suns spread: Suns -7
  • Mavericks vs. Suns over-under: 215 points
  • Mavericks vs. Suns money line: Suns -300, Mavericks +240
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • PHX: The Suns are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has an elite offensive engine in Doncic, and the Mavericks are dynamic on that end of the floor. The Mavericks are scoring more than 1.15 points per possession in the 2022 NBA playoffs, leading the postseason by committing only 9.7 turnovers per game. Dallas averages 2.04 assists for every turnover, and the Mavericks are connecting on 38.4 percent of 3-point attempts. Doncic is the leading scorer in the postseason, averaging 31.3 points per game, and he adds 9.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists per contest.

As a team, the Mavericks finished in the top five of the NBA in turnovers (12.5 per game) and two-point shooting (54.8 percent) during the regular season, with no signs of slowing down. On defense, Dallas is holding playoff opponents to 33.3 percent shooting from 3-point range, and the Mavericks led the NBA in 3-pointers allowed (10.9 per game) during the regular season. Dallas was No. 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency in 2021-22, yielding only 1.09 points per possession, and the Mavericks ranked in the top 10 of the league in free throw prevention, assist prevention, and defensive rebound rate.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix’s offense is clearly elite, with a shotmaking profile that is virtually unmatched in the NBA this season. The Suns are also excellent on defense, however, allowing less than 1.07 points per possession during the regular season. Phoenix finished No. 3 in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and the Suns were also No. 3 in both field goal percentage allowed (44.4 percent) and two-point accuracy allowed (51.0 percent). The Suns were also in the top five of the NBA in 3-point accuracy allowed (34.0 percent) and assists allowed (22.9 per game).

In addition, the Mavericks are currently the team with the worst overall rebounding rate in the NBA playoffs (45.8 percent), and Dallas ranked in the bottom 10 of the NBA in offensive rebound rate, assists per game, second-chance points, fast break points, and points in the paint during the regular season. Finally, Phoenix is out-scoring opponents by more than 10 points per 100 possessions in home playoff games, embracing the team’s home-court advantage.

How to make Suns vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 227 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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