November 28, 2022

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10:15 a.m. — Weekend forecast trending more unsettled

As we’ve mentioned the last couple of days, there is high uncertainty in the weekend forecast, especially Saturday and Sunday. The American (GFS) model has been advertising occasional rain showers while the European model, until last night, projected dry, sunny weather. Unfortunately, the European model seems to be caving to the idea of the American model and is now showing more clouds and showers for Saturday and Sunday. Both models suggest rain chances should lesson by Monday but, even then, we may not be completely out of the woods. This doesn’t mean the weekend will be a washout just that rain may be a nuisance at times. We’ll have more details in future updates as the weekend draws closer.

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

3/10: Crying uncle as we’ve had enough; more May rain is mainly a pain.

  • Today: A.m. rain, p.m. drizzle. Highs: 64 to 69.
  • Tonight: Cloudy, patchy drizzle. Lows: 55 to 60.
  • Tomorrow: Cloudy, drizzle possible. Highs: 65 to 70.

Washington’s second-wettest May over the past decade doesn’t need any help, but here we go again with more periods of rain and drizzle for the next few days. The Memorial Day weekend should bring warmer air and sunnier skies, but a dry forecast is still far from a lock.

Today (Tuesday): Rain lingers this morning with the steadiest activity south and east of the city. The rain should taper to light showers or drizzle by this afternoon as highs struggle to reach the mid- to upper 60s. Additional rainfall is mostly less than 0.25 inches, although our far southern areas could pick up a bit more. Light winds from the east at 5 to 10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Lingering low pressure keeps clouds and that cool marine air mass in place, with patches of drizzle and light showers possible. Lows range from the mid-50s to around 60 with light winds from the east and northeast. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Wednesday): Clingy cloudiness continues thanks to low pressure stalled off the East Coast amid cool breezes from the east (5 to 10 mph). Patchy drizzle or light showers remain possible. Highs are again cooler than normal from the mid-60s to near 70. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Cloudy skies as lows settle in the upper 50s to low 60s. Light drizzle or a shower continue to be possible. Confidence: Medium

Thursday features the coastal low pressure moving away and a new low-pressure zone from the Midwest moving in. Thursday morning could see some partly sunny breaks before we cloud up again in the afternoon with scattered showers or storms possible. Provided a warm front is able to push through the area, highs should rebound to the mid-70s to around 80. There’s an outside chance we remain socked in with clouds and cooler. Showers and storms become more probable Thursday night under cloudy skies with lows ranging through the 60s. Confidence: Medium

Friday features more showers and thunderstorms under mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70s to around 80. We might manage some partial clearing by late in the day. A few clouds could linger Friday night with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: Medium

The Memorial Day holiday weekend is poised to benefit from sunnier skies and seasonal to warm temperatures each day. Highs near 80 on Saturday should push into the low to mid-80s Sunday with mid- to upper 80s potentially by the Monday holiday. Lows each night should range through the 60s amid partly cloudy skies. A possible wrinkle is that some computer model projections stall the Thursday-Friday low pressure near the East Coast over the weekend that would keep it cooler and wetter. We will monitor this situation closely. Confidence: Low-Medium

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