November 29, 2022

The 2022 NBA Finals continue on Monday with an intriguing Game 5 matchup. The Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics with the series tied at 2-2. Chase Center showcases the proceedings in San Francisco. The Warriors aim to maintain home-court advantage, with the Celtics hoping for revenge after a Game 4 loss at home.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as the four-point home favorite for this 9 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 210.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Celtics odds. Before locking in any Celtics vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA Finals 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the 2022 NBA Finals on a stunning 88-60 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in its Warriors vs. Celtics picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Celtics vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Celtics spread: Golden State -4
  • Warriors vs. Celtics over-under: 210.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Celtics money line: Golden State -170, Boston +145
  • Warriors vs. Celtics tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • BOS: The Celtics are 14-8 against the spread in playoff games
  • GS: The Warriors are 11-9 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston’s defense is top-notch. The Celtics are holding the Warriors to 44.9 percent shooting in the series, and Boston is giving up only 16.3 free throw attempts per game against Golden State. The Celtics have been near the top of the 2022 NBA playoffs in blocked shots and, for the entire postseason, Boston is yielding only 106.2 points per 100 possessions. Opponents are shooting only 43.6 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3-point range in the postseason, with the Celtics giving up only 20.5 assists per game. 

In the regular season, Boston led the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing only 1.06 points per possession. The Celtics are switchable, versatile, and physical on defense, and Ime Udoka’s team also led the league in field goal percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed and assists allowed in 2021-22.

Why the Warriors can cover 

Golden State has a notable home-court advantage at Chase Center. The Warriors are 10-1 in home tilts during the 2022 postseason, out-scoring opponents by 12.5 points per 100 possessions. Much of that can be tied to an elite offense, with the Warriors scoring well over 1.19 points per possession in playoff home games. Overall, Golden State is generating 115.1 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, effectively using elite passing, offensive rebounding, and blistering shooting. The Warriors are averaging 14.7 second-chance points per game in the playoffs and securing more than 29 percent of missed shots in the series against Boston. 

Golden State is also averaging 27.2 assists per game in the 2022 postseason, and the team maintains a 59.4 percent true shooting mark that includes more than 38 percent from 3-point distance. Stephen Curry is also a clear X-factor, with the former MVP scoring 43 points and burying seven 3-pointers in Game 4. Curry is averaging 34.3 points per game and shooting 49 percent from 3-point distance against Boston, with the Celtics failing to account for his gravity and dynamism.

How to make Celtics vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 212 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get that NBA Finals pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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